Goldman Sachs expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise interest rates by three more 25-basis-point hikes, bringing the benchmark to 5.5 percent, due to inflation risks from El Niño and rising oil prices linked to global conflicts.
The bank said the BSP is mainly worried about second-round effects that could unanchor inflation expectations, especially as recent shocks from the Middle East appear to be affecting prices faster than previous crises.
It noted that inflation forecasts may still rise further as they do not yet include the possible impact of a strong El Niño in late 2026 to early 2027.
Other analysts have mixed views, with some expecting inflation to ease if oil prices fall, while others see at least one more rate hike before policy stabilizes due to weak economic growth.
Despite easing energy risks in some areas, think tanks warn that the Philippines’ recovery may remain slow due to weak consumer confidence and fiscal constraints.
Source: PhilNews24 | July 4, 2026
EL NIÑO, OIL SHOCKS COULD TRIGGER MORE BSP RATE HIKES — GOLDMAN SACHS
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